There is a secret in the publishing world that traditional publishers don’t want writers to discover.
Deep down you probably already know this but…
Most books don’t sell many copies!
The traditional book selling model is based on selling books from bookshops. This means that the way books are sold and marketed is influenced by the fact that bookshops have a limited shelf space to stock books. Therefore, they need each inch of bookshelf space to earn its keep and therefore bookshops look to stock only the books they know will sell well.
Bookshops understand that they need to please readers and as a result they stock a range of genres. However in each genre they are looking to offer the books that they know will sell the most copies. In essence, bookshops are only interested in stocking the bestsellers from each genre.
Unfortunately, bestsellers by their very nature, represent only a fraction of the books published each year. Though it is impossible to put accurate figures on the bestseller ratio, it is widely regarded that about only 20% of books printed each year will sell beyond meagre expectations to become bestsellers. Pinning publishers down to reliable figures regarding what is considered a bestseller is next to impossible; however it is generally quoted that AT MOST only 20% of a publisher’s yearly releases will sell more than about 5000 copies.
You don’t believe me?
Well look at the sales figures for this year’s Orange long list for Fiction. Seven of the twenty titles have sold less than 1000 copies, and only three have sold more than 10,000 books.
This means that a huge 80% of published books will never get any significant book self-space, going on to sell far fewer than the magic 5000 copies. This means that without obtaining a spot on the bookshop shelves, the chances are becoming a bestseller are next to zero.
So what happens to these non-bestselling books?
Well nothing! Publishers know that without bookshop representation a title is dead in the water, leaving them with little choice but to cut their losses and move onto the next title. You see, publishers operate a model by which they publish many books, knowing most will fail, but a few will succeed and become bestsellers. Naturally, it is these few titles in which they will invest the most time, effort and money. Publishers know that one bestseller can support numerous non-bestseller titles.
To keep the system primed publishers need to keep producing titles with the hope that their next release will be a bestseller that is able to force its way onto the shelves. It is easier for publishers to convince bookshops that a new title will be a bestseller, than it is to convince them that an old title that has sold poorly will suddenly start selling. This means that publishers need writers, or more precisely, they need new writers. And to keep the flow of new work moving publishers are carried out a quick sleight of hand.
There exists in the publishing world, what I call the ‘cult of the bestseller’. This is the obsession with bestselling authors. We writers see the likes of J.K. Rowling and Stephen King and think it is all rosy. After all, they are bestselling millionaires, so why not us? Why can’t our latest unpublished novel be the next Harry Potter?
Yet, the reality is that 80% of writers will never earn more than the initial royalty they are paid for the book. Most writers will sell far fewer than 5000 copies – and the publishers know this! Yet they choose to keep it a secret. The last thing the publishing system needs is educated writers who understand that the chances of fulfilling their writing dreams are so slim, that it is hardly worth investing all the personal time and emotional energy into writing the booking the first place.
As it stands, the system is a well-oiled machine with the odds stacked firmly in the favour of bookshops and publishers. The only real losers are the unsuspecting writers. After all, we have been convinced that a 10-15% royalty is fair! Publishers tell us they are taking all the risk, after all they need to invest all that money into producing, printing and selling our book. But think about it! A publisher KNOWS most books will not be bestsellers and can therefore budget accordingly. They know that, if they are careful, any money lost on the 80% of non-bestsellers will be more than accounted for by the top 20% of bestsellers. Hardly a risk, more a maths exercise.
In reality it is the writer who is taking all the risks. What do you think happens to that writer whose debut novel sells less than 1000 copies?
The answer comes when they write a second book and pitch it to agents and publishers. The first thing the agent/publisher will do, when considering the pitch, is look up the sales of the writer’s first book. When they see that these sales were poor, do you think they are rushing to offer a contract or turning their backs and reading the next submission from a new and unsuspecting writer?
It is easy for us writers to read these words and turn our anger onto publishers but this would be wrong. Publishers are doing the best they can with a system based on shelf space. Just stop and think – if you were a publisher running a business in the current market, would you not do the same thing?
The correct response from the writer needs to be two fold. The first is to do your own research. Forget my words, do a bit a digging yourself. See if you can find figures for book sales outside the bestseller list (I would love to see them if you can!). Start reading between the lines and arm yourself with an understanding of the publishing system.
Secondly, have hope! The system IS changing. Read Chris Anderson’s Long Tail. This explains how digital goods are changing the world. I firmly believe that within ten years the dependence on the shelf space model will be a bad dream as publishers embrace the internet and amazon. In the meantime, I urge writers to beware.